1996-97 Sports Betting Guide Article
Winning by Avoiding the Obvious
by Warren Repole, The Sunshine Forecast
Many successful handicappers use historical angles
to assist in their selections.
I use a number of angles,
both in college football and in the NFL,
to determine where there is value with the posted lines.
I look for angles that seem to contradict
the prevailing wisdom or
the public's perceptions of a matchup.
NFL Teams Playing Three Straight Games at Home
Let's begin with an NFL scheduling angle.
What is the impact of playing three straight
regular season home games? Does the home team
have an extra edge since they don't have to travel
for several weeks? Do teams gain momentum
from back-to-back home victories?
What about clearly superior teams or
those squads facing inferior opposition in home game #3?
The answer is:
Go AGAINST any regular season
home favorite of 7 or more points
when they are coming off consecutive victories,
both at home. Since 1988, eleven teams have been
in this situation -- all eleven failed to cover.
Three teams lost outright and
six others won by 3 or less,
including San Diego against Arizona on 12/9/95.
Details of this system
College Rematches with Teams Headed in Different Directions
Let's move to the college ranks now.
Suppose a team is favored but fails to cover
against an opponent and, in a rematch the following year,
that team is now the underdog. In fact,
the difference between last year's line
and this year's line is more than 17 points.
Can this year's team really be that much worse?
(Or its opponent that much better?)
The findings:
Go WITH the underdog in the rematch.
In 20 such cases from 1993 through 1995,
the team getting the extra points covered 14 times (70%).
Plus, if the earlier game was an outright upset,
revenge was gained 7 of 9 times (78%)
including shockers such as
Purdue over Illinois as 17-point underdogs in October 1994.
Details of this system
"Hot" Teams vs "Cold" Teams in NFL Wild Card Games
For one final example, consider the wild card round
of the NFL playoffs. Could you bet against a "hot" team
starting the post-season by facing a "cold" team?
History says:
Go AGAINST the hotter team.
Here we define the "hot" team as one with
2 or 3 victories in its final three games
and a positive combined point differential
in those games and a "cold" team as one with
a negative point differential in its final three games.
Check out last December's Lions-Eagles game.
Detroit comes in with a 7-game win streak
(+78 point differential) while Philadelphia struggled
down the stretch (-2 point differential).
And the Eagles romp, 58-37, as 3-point dogs.
Since 1984, 11 of 12 "hot" teams have failed to cover
against their "cold" opponent, including all five home squads.
Details of this system
Historical angles can help a handicapper whose
basic strategy is sound. This is especially true
in situations when a specific angle gives us
additional value with respect to the posted
betting line due to misaligned public perceptions.